Melbourne, Australia – The ruling Liberal-led conservative coalition appeared to secure a surprise win in the Australian federal election on Saturday after outperforming exit polls that predicted a victory for the opposition Labor Party.
While the Liberal-National Coalition won more seats in the House of Representatives than Labor, it was unclear whether they won an outright majority of 76 seats or if they will need to negotiate with the cross bench to form a minority government.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who had campaigned on providing tax cuts and the enduring resilience of Australia‘s economy, claimed victory, saying: “I have always believed in miracles.”
Morrison said his government worked for Australians who “work hard”, aim to start a family, buy a home and live well in retirement.
“It’s always been about them,” he said, adding: “This is the best country in the world in which to live.”
Shortly before Morrison’s victory speech, the opposition leader, Bill Shorten, conceded defeat saying it was “obvious that Labor will not be able to form the next government”.
“In the national interest, a short while ago, I called Scott Morrison to congratulate him,” he said.
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Speaking in Melbourne, Shorten said he would not contest Labor’s next vote for party leader, and urged supporters to “carry on the fight”.
Australia has had six changes of prime minister over the past 12 years – mostly the result of internal party fights. Shorten had sold his party as a chance to escape the “chaos” of the ruling coalition and to create a fairer Australia.
John Howard, former prime minister, said Saturday’s results showed Australians had rejected Labor’s “envy-driven politics”.
The treasurer Josh Frydenberg said “the economic choice at this election was at the heart of the minds of Australian voters”. Australia’s economy has consecutively grown for 28 years.
Surprise win
While the election was always expected to be close, the results were markedly different to what virtually all opinion and exit polls had indicated.
A Nine-Galaxy poll on Saturday showed the Labor winning as many as 82 seats in the 151-member House of Representatives, which would have given it a decisive win over the Coalition.
Newspoll, a poll conducted by The Australian newspaper, showed the Coalition trailing Labor for the 50th consecutive time in March.
A final Newspoll released on Friday showed the lowest primary vote intention for the Coalition recorded on the eve of an election since Newspoll records began in 1987.
Jayani Nadarajalingam, a lecturer in Australian politics at the University of Melbourne, said “there seems to be an endorsement or unwillingness to get rid of the status quo”.
Nationally, the largest swing against Labor came from Australians aged over 65. In addition to raising taxes for high income earners, Shorten had pledged to remove tax breaks for income made on shares owned by retired Australians – branded by the Coalition as a “retiree tax”.
Queensland, typically Australia’s most conservative state, saw a large swing away from Labor including around the state capital of Brisbane. Penny Wong, a Labor Senator, told local television she “would have preferred a better result out of Queensland”.
“We always knew Queensland was somewhere to watch, but to the extent that it supported the coalition I think surprised many,” said Nadarajalingam.
Several seats in Australia’s largest city Sydney, however, saw a significant swing against the coalition.
Former Liberal prime minister, Tony Abbott, who had held his seat of Warringah in Sydney’s affluent Northern Beaches since 1994, lost to his opponent Zali Steggal, a lawyer and former Olympian.
Abbott, who had been seen as a destructive force within the Coalition since being dumped as party leader for Malcolm Turnbull in September 2015, had been targeted during the campaign by the progressive lobby group GetUp.
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“Of course, it’s disappointing for us here in Warringah. But what matters is what’s best for the country… who forms a government in Canberra,” said Abbott of the overall election result in his concession speech.
“This is a stupendous result for Scott Morrison and the rest of the wider Liberal team.”
Julie Bishop, the government’s former foreign minister, said on television that Abbott’s loss was punishment for being a “climate change denier”.
Steggal is an independent who positioned herself as an economic conservative, but who would take more progressive positions on climate and social policy. She had nevertheless said she would back the Coalition to form a government.
Minister for Home Affairs Peter Dutton, another right-wing Liberal who had also been targeted by GetUp, retained his seat.
“GetUp and the Labor Party and the Greens have run the dirtiest campaign in history,” he told an event in his suburban Brisbane electorate.
The Greens’ Adam Bandt, member for Melbourne and the party’s only parliamentarian in the House of Representatives, retained his seat.
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